Jinzhou Pipeline (002443) In-depth report: Welded pipe business has a strong accumulation of quality and a steady improvement in operating quality

Jinzhou Pipeline (002443) In-depth report: Welded pipe business has a strong accumulation of quality and a steady improvement in operating quality
Report Summary: Benefiting from the prosperity of the oil and gas industry, profitability continued to improve after 2014, and the short-term trend remains unchanged.The company’s revenue source is mainly galvanized pipe, but the profit proportion is gradually decreasing; the revenue increase mainly comes from spiral welded pipe, straight seam submerged arc welded pipe and high frequency welded pipe products. The profit proportion of the above products has steadily increased due to oil and gas pipelines.Demand is good, and the expansion of the purchase and sales gap has led to a continued rebound in gross profit margins. In 2018, it achieved the best profit level in history. It is expected that the high profit level will remain or even continue to improve for a long time. High-quality capacity is yet to be released, and the product structure is continuously optimized to improve profitability.After the steel-plastic pipe production line is put into operation, it is currently investing in 3 new short-term high-quality thin-wall stainless steel pipe fittings production lines, and the product structure continues to be optimized.The company currently has a welded pipe capacity of 130 mm and a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 75%?80%, the production capacity of steel-plastic pipe production line is to be fully utilized, and the annual production capacity of spiral welded pipes still has 20 tons of release space. Increasing the proportion of oil and gas consumption will increase the demand for welded pipes. After the pipe network is independent, the company will welcome the development opportunity again.Fundamentally, “coal to gas” has accelerated the optimization of the upstream energy structure; instead, the current natural gas pipeline still has some problems with insufficient mileage and facility capacity.We predict 深圳桑拿网 that the growth rate of galvanized pipe production and sales will remain at 5% to 10% after 2018, and the market size will exceed 100 billion yuan. The investment in natural gas pipeline construction by 2025 is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan.The national oil and gas pipeline network company is expected to be established in the second half of the year. It will break the monopoly of oil and gas welded pipe supply in the past in the oil system, and the outer pipe factory is expected to expand its business. The poorly managed pipe factory was cleared, and the high-quality enterprise became the final winner.The company insists on budget operation, and the rate has remained at least a part of the rate over the past 10 years. The total capital turnover rate has been higher than that of its peers for a long time, maintaining 杭州夜生活网 low-debt operations and a very healthy capital structure.The initial peers gradually withdrew from the welded pipe business due to excess capacity and deteriorating profitability. The company’s accumulated wealth in the welded pipe business led to profitability. Company profit forecast and investment grade: We expect revenues of 48 in 2019, 2020 and 2021.07 billion, 47.2.5 billion, 50.74 trillion, EPS is 0.51, 0.67, 0.83, corresponding PE is 14, respectively.2X, 10.8X, 8.7 times.According to the preliminary comparison with the company and the horizontal comparison with its peers, we believe that the company’s reasonable PE and PB in 2019 are 20X and 2, respectively.3, the stock price corresponding to 3 months is 10.2 yuan, maintaining the company’s “highly recommended” level. Risk Warning: (1) The downstream demand of core products is lower than expected; (2) The price of raw materials exceeds expectations