Chenming Paper (000488): Q4 results bottomed optimistic about demand rebound

Chenming Paper (000488): Q4 results bottomed optimistic about demand rebound

[Event]The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income of 288 in 2018.

76 ‰, an average of 2% over ten years, and net profit attributable to the mother is 25.

1 ‰, 33 years ago.

4%, net profit after deduction is 43%, EPS 0.

51 yuan.

Revenue in the fourth quarter was 53.

83 ‰, 28 years ago.

64%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

29 ppm, a ten-year average of 97.

29%.

[Comment]The industry demand is sluggish, and the company bottoms out.

In the second half of 2018, due to the sluggish industry demand, the price of paper continued to decline, and the fourth quarter profit almost reached its lowest level in history, with a net profit of 0.

9%.

Initially, in the fourth quarter, the price difference of wood pulp paper grades shifted by 25%, and the gross profit 武汉夜生活网 margin shifted to 24%, which gradually decreased by 11.

5 points.

In terms of different types of paper, the gross profit margin of white cardboard has decreased significantly, only 16.
.

23%, a year down 14.

7pct, coated paper 27.

47%, ten years ago3.

2pct, double adhesive tape is basically flat.

We judge that industry demand is likely to bottom out.

At present, there is a basic consensus on price increases in the past three months. In April, the industry generally raised prices by 200 yuan / ton.

Considering that port inventory has improved month-on-month, it is reduced by about 6%. We estimate that further price increases are expected in the future. Overlapping in April is the traditional peak season. With the support of publishing house demand, the probability of price increases can be realized.

The 杭州桑拿 new production capacity has blossomed at multiple points, enhancing the certainty of performance.

In the second half of 2018, 30 injections of chemical wood pulp were put into production, and Shouguang Meilun 40 inserted wood pulp into the commissioning to continue to reduce costs and achieve performance expansion.

The selective contraction of financial leasing business reduces risks and improves profitability.

The company has selectively contracted its financial leasing business. As of the 2018 annual report, long-term receivables79.

27 ppm, a continuous improvement from the previous month, a decrease of 7.

USD 5.8 billion, USD 4 billion of non-current assets due within one year, a decrease of USD 1.8 billion from the previous quarter.

At the same time, the company’s cash flow from operating activities continued to improve, with a net recovery of 61.

900 million.

The company has announced the gradual divestiture of non-core businesses to enhance certainty in future performance.

Profit forecast and investment income.

We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

52/0.

58/0.

61 yuan, corresponding to PE is 7.
8/6.
9/6.

5 times, we believe that Chenming Paper’s growth is stable and sustainable, maintaining the “highly recommended” level.

risk warning.

Due to the price war brought about by the unexpected commissioning of production capacity, the price of wood pulp dropped.